Step 3 of 12Evidence
03 · Facts, claims and gaps

Examine the evidence pack

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Read every document. Separate what is confirmed from what is claimed, and note what is missing.

Board paper

Fraud savings update

From: Claims Director

Confirmed fraud savings are up 30% year on year. We propose auto-declining claims that score above 0.95 to cut SIU workload.

  • The 30% figure is not compared with a control group
  • No analysis of genuine claims held in the SIU
Performance data

Last quarter

MeasureResult
Claims scored10,000
Routed to SIU600
Confirmed fraud90
Cleared as genuine410
Still open after 30 days100
Average days held, genuine claims23 working days
  • The SIU target is 10 working days
  • Customers are not told why their claim is held
Internal analysis

SIU referral rate by area

From: Pricing analytics (informal)

Area deprivation bandShare of claimsSIU referral rate
1 (least deprived)22%3%
221%4%
320%6%
419%8%
5 (most deprived)18%11%
  • Confirmed fraud rate in band 5 referrals: 12%; in band 1: 19%
  • Postcode is a model input
Model documentation

Top model features (supplier summary)

  • Time since policy start or change
  • Postcode risk index
  • Number of prior claims
  • Call-transcript inconsistency score (speech-to-text based)
  • Claim submitted outside office hours
Complaint

Complaint from Mrs Okafor (fictional)

My roof was damaged in the storm. Seven weeks later I still have tarpaulin on it and nobody will tell me why. I have been with you for 22 years. I feel like I am being treated as a criminal.
Customer communication

Standard SIU holding letter

Your claim is currently under review. We will contact you when the review is complete. Thank you for your patience.

Facts, claims and gaps

Keep these three apart. A decision-maker needs to know which is which.

What does the evidence pack establish?

What is asserted by the supplier or the business but not yet evidenced?

Show any calculation. Say what the figures do and do not tell you.

Name the specific documents, data or tests you would ask for

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